Because the numbers are adding upward, conclusions aren’t necessarily going to add up when it comes to COVID-19 data and eventual coping strategies, believes NIC CEO Brian Jurutka.
For that reason, he says, seniors housing and care providers across a wider spectrum must start submitting data to increase transparency about coronavirus infections and their effects.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, via the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has started gathering key coronavirus statistics, but the results have been limited to nursing home operators, Jurutka said Monday in an interview with McKnight’s.
Further, he observed that the data being gathered is often not reflective of current conditions.
“Most often, stories focus on the most egregious cases, and don’t get put in broader context of all the communities that don’t have COVID-positive cases,” Jurutka noted. “Second, they are cumulative stories, noting the cumulative number of positives or deaths. It hasn’t happened yet, but we could have more COVID-positives or deaths [eventually reported] than there are current residents.”
It’s critical that all seniors housing and care settings understand whether their percentage of infections and deaths are rising or falling, not just accumulating, he added.
“Even if the [cumulative] rate of affected operators is 60% or 70%, I would guess the current number could be a tenth of that,” Jurutka explained. “There is an opportunity for the industry to educate the broader media and population. One opportunity is to educate. A second is to build trust and confidence. If we provide information and transparency, it will build credibility with the broader public.”
He said that is much preferred to news organizations or others requesting information through Freedom of Information Act requests or lawsuits, or seeing others attempt to aggregate.
The gamble of not doing more
“This risk if we don’t get clarity is the story will continue to be driven by these ‘numerator’’ stories and they tend to be negative and, to some extent, fear-driven. They also don’t put the data into full context,” he explained.
”That will ultimately lead to increased levels of concern among the general public for the long-term care space, and broader policy makers and influencers within the space. Even among investors, insurance providers and other constituents in the broader space. Without having the information and being able to understand the broader trends, it’s not flattering, nor necessarily in context.”
Jurutka said the consequences of not gathering and disseminating more information would be damaging.
“By not having this information for the broader seniors housing ecosystem, even the players in this ecosystem will have less visibility and will rely on the headlines and could say, ‘Gosh, should I invest in this space?’ And ‘Is it still what I thought it was when I became interested?’”
To answer the challenges, Jurutka’s group, the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care, is undertaking a broad COVID-19 data-gathering initiative, “Executive Survey Insights: COVID-19.” The American Seniors Housing Association and Argentum have enlisted their members to submit statistics by Sunday’s deadline, but Jurutka would like other providers — from all settings and ownership types — to also take part, preferably on a monthly basis.
NIC is asking operators to contribute their testing, infection and mortality numbers regarding:
- The reach of how much testing has been done
- What the percentage of individuals who have been lab-confirmed as COVID-positive is
- The percentage of suspected COVID-positives
- The outcomes afterward for COVID-positives: The percentage recovered and the percentage deceased
Operator can submit their data by clicking here. Those who submit their statistics will get the first look at the aggregated results, which will then be released publicly 24 hours later.
“We’re past that almost adrenaline-fueled crisis phase and approaching that ‘new normal,’ and we have to figure out how to [conduct business] on an ongoing basis,” Jurutka said. “What are the right policies and procedures for admitting new residents? How do we ensure we’re getting access to PPE and testing? And how do we ensure caregivers on the front lines are appropriately supported to serve the most vulnerable population in America?”
The last three months have brought record amounts of change, he noted. The next next six to 12 months will bring slower change but still more than the last few pre-pandemic years combined, Jurutka predicted.
To be ready, operators must first be candid, he feels.
“Any important piece here is to have key metrics and to understand how broader metrics are performing across all care settings. That information is incredibly valuable. Not just how am I doing, but how am I doing relative to the broader industry? If you have a car and your car is running just fine, but you understand there is a recall across the broader make and year, that’s the time you say, ‘Let me look at my car to see if I need to do some maintenance or make changes.’ Operators must be ready.”
