New data shows there was an unexpected increase in occupancy at skilled nursing facilities, following up the previous quarter’s record low.

The National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care announced Wednesday that occupancy at U.S. SNFs ticked up to 82.2% in the quarter. Officials said the change was a surprise, given that occupancy has declined or stayed flat between the second and third quarters the previous three years.

Three months does not signal a sea change, however, cautioned Bill Kauffman, senior principal at NIC.

“I think it warrants attention,” he told McKnight’s. “But we can’t really say we’re out of the woods yet, at all, because of just one quarter’s worth of data.”

Overall, occupancy climbed 14 basis points in the third quarter ending Sept. 30, though it was almost a full percentage point lower than a year-earlier levels.  

Speculating on the reason for the change, Kauffman noted that over the past few years, there has been negative growth in the 83- to 87-year-old population, which is a key demographic for nursing homes. This quarter’s data may signal the “beginnings of a turnaround.” As proof of that point, last month, Genesis Healthcare touted a solid third quarter, noting an uptick in its 85-plus occupancy.

Meanwhile, managed Medicare patient day mix increased 7 basis points from the second quarter. That small change was driven by urban areas, up 22 basis points versus rural areas, which were slightly down.

“The big story of the last few years is that the fee-for-service Medicare mix is trending down, and that’s been the result of competition from home health, but also more penetration from managed Medicare, which has put pressure on lengths of stay,” Kauffman said.  

NIC also found that the Medicaid patient day mix increased to an all-time high since it started collecting this data in 2012, up to 66.7%. The combo of this and the relatively steady performance in private patient day mix may help to further explain the favorable occupancy trends.

Medicaid revenue mix also reached a high of 50.5% this past quarter, up 88 basis points from the previous quarter. Although the lowest payer in terms of revenue per patient day, Medicaid grew at the fastest pace over the past year compared to other payment types, rising by 2%, NIC found.