In light of the rollicking ride the stock market has been on, and likely will be on for a while, investors need to be very careful. But, novice that I am, I can tell you this with certainty: If “research” were some kind of stock or other investment instrument, we’d all be very smart to buy, and keep on buying.
No matter when it is that COVID-19 enters a less-frightening endemic stage, we know this pandemic is going to keep researchers and scientists busy for a very long time. Extremely long time.
Years from now, we’ll still be hearing about new discoveries from the crunching or revelation of more data. All will be helpful for dealing with longhaul effects of the virus. Or coping with the next horrible scourge that comes along. The white lab coats are all but guaranteeing that will happen at some point.
But if you want to know what’s going on now, I have a good recommendation. Keep an eye on the blog posts from Omar Zahraoui. A data analyst with advanced degrees in corporate finance and information systems and analytics, he can knock your PPE-issue socks off with plenty of pertinent numbers and insights.
Oh, he’s also employed by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care. That should tell you right away that you’re sitting at the grown-ups’ table.
Zahroui’s latest post appeared earlier this week and quantified some long-held suspicions about COVID-19 in skilled nursing. It also offered some eye-opening observations, as some of my McKnight’s colleagues have noted.
Perhaps I shouldn’t have been surprised to learn from Zahraoui that omicron, the supposedly “milder” variant, has caused more skilled nursing deaths than the delta variant. But it has. The keys, he pointed out, are that case counts have been relatively high and booster-shot rates have lagged.
Boosters rose from 52% of residents in December to 60% a couple of weeks ago (and from 21% to 30% for staff).
This makes one ponder the wisdom of some states hoping to water down pushes for booster compliance. Or is it that the omicron danger is so sharply falling off the table, it could essentially become a moot point? Can one take a chance with this type of vulnerable population?
Omicron in retreat
In brief, the numbers solidly show that the omicron variant is clearly on the decline. It is fading at about the same rate that it peaked. While new omicron cases were 45% higher in January than during the December 2020 spike, they were also far less fatal. Weekly COVID-19 deaths among skilled nursing patients topped out at about 1,500 a month ago. That’s only about one-fourth of the number who died at the peak time around Dec. 20, 2020.
I urge you to read Zahroui’s entire post, and other writings of his on the NIC website. But give yourself a little time once there. You’ll probably meander into other caches of valuable information.
In the meantime, however, I can tell you that he considers COVID-19 vaccines “an extraordinary contribution” to lowering the risk of severe illness and deaths among the SNF population. It might be the first time I’ve seen an NIC blog address risks other than in financial terms, but it works just as well — and may be even more valuable to operators.
If nothing else, all of this reminds us virus variants are a big devil here. It was just a year ago, when vaccines started to get fully into play for the first time, that public and senior care tensions started to ease a little. But delta fired up at the end of summer, and then omicron burst onto the scene at the end of the year with an entirely different, yet dangerous personality.
You learn more about this, and other intriguing info at NIC’s fascinating skilled nursing COVID-19 weekly tracker. Among other things, there’s a map that shows COVID-19 prevalence and rates at the county level. With it so well documented that nursing facilities’ infection rates directly reflect those in the outer community, there’s a lot that providers can learn here.
In just about a month, the learning opportunities will be even grander. And they’ll come in-person — at the NIC annual spring conference in Dallas, which carries a distinct skilled nursing flavor compared to some of the group’s other events.
Given its track record and the personnel involved, it would be a good bet to consider it a worthy investment in learning. About both the here and now, and the future.
James M. Berklan is McKnight’s Long-Term Care News Executive Editor.
Opinions expressed in McKnight’s columns are not necessarily those of McKnight’s.
