Would you ask a barber if you need a haircut? Or ask a server if dessert is a good idea? Or ask an insurance agent if it’s time to up your coverage?
You might, but there’s little doubt what the reply would likely be: a quick and resounding yes.
Now you might get that enthusiastic response because the answer is patently clear. But maybe, just maybe, the person being asked might have a stake in the outcome.
Which brings us to something we seem to be seeing a lot more of lately: industry officials predicting better days ahead for skilled care operators.
Now it may very well be the case that this field is recovering, that occupancy will rise, payments will improve and deals will start flowing. After all, the pandemic pretty much brought this industry to its knees.
So there is probably good reason to believe that if nothing else, the worst may be over.
But are happy days going to be here again? Who knows?
Not to be a downer, but there is still a lot of uncertainty out there. Many potential customers are now rethinking the wisdom of congregate living in old age.
The skilled care model — which is seemingly under constant duress — may find itself in a bigger battle than ever with home care operators and other competitors. And who’s to say another pandemic-strength threat won’t come along? Can’t happen? Well then, how many experts were predicting COVID-19 two years ago?
Is there anything wrong with industry officials forecasting a brighter future? Probably not.
But whenever you hear such utterances, keep two things in mind. The first is that predicting anything carries the risk of being wrong. The second is that many of these sudden optimists have skin in the game. One way or another, they stand to gain if things improve.
There’s a cardinal rule in sports writing: no cheering in the press box. The idea behind this mandate is that reporters are supposed to be impartial observers, not fans cheering on their team.
So the next time you read about a bullish expert, ask yourself this: Is this person an impartial observer, or a fan? The answer to that question might be far more telling.
John O’Connor is Editorial Director for McKnight’s.
