Some American Health Care Association convention attendees might have experienced a sudden case of whiplash last week.
That’s because their eyes and ears were quickly exposed to two very different realities.
At the general session, the normally anything-but-negative Mark Parkinson didn’t mince his words about the current state of affairs vis a vis skilled care:
“I really think this is our toughest time, ever,” said the organization’s president and CEO.
To be sure, he could hardly be accused of sounding a false alarm. For if you are in the skilled care business these days (and if you are reading this, you probably are), there is no shortage of old or new concerns to keep you awake at night.
Let’s start with the traditional bugaboos, regulatory excess and inadequate Medicaid funding. Regarding the first, there is always too much. Of the second, there is never enough.
Then there are what might be called the headaches du jour. In case you didn’t notice, skilled care operators are about to embark upon yet another new payment system, courtesy of Uncle Sam. The Patient Driven Payment Model is hardly just a fresh paint job. It’s a whole new way of keeping the government informed, so you can get most of what you’ve earned.
Then there’s the nation’s lowest unemployment rate in decades. Great for the economy. Not so great if you happen to be trying to find or keep qualified workers. And, oh, by the way, the census numbers are down. Way down.
Throw in heightened competition for just about everything imaginable, and it was no day at the beach in San Diego. That is, unless you happened to play hooky and actually go to the beach.
To be sure, this is a challenging time for many in the sector.
Then again, how to you explain this somewhat contrarian reality: a jam packed expo hall?
As a general rule, vendors tend to stay away from a dying market full of businesses that can’t afford new goods and services. Yet last week’s show not only had a record or near record number of booths, it featured some of the most robust booth activity many vendors have seen in years.
So what gives? Is the market in trouble? Or is this a great time to be a part of it? And here’s your answer: yes and yes.
To be sure, there are headaches a plenty.
But here’s the thing. The pain is uneven. As a CliftonLarsonAllen report released last week shows, well-run facilities are doing quite well, thank you very much. As for the lower quadrant operators? Have you noticed there are quite a few facilities for sale right now?
And here’s the other thing: Things will get better. Yes, the date on when the cavalry will arrive seems to be getting quietly nudged back ever so slightly, but the Silver Tsunami is eventually going to get here. And when they do, it’s going to be a very different ballgame, indeed.
So take heart. No winter this side of the Antarctic lasts forever. And don’t take my word for it; take the vendors’. Believe me, if they didn’t see better days ahead, there wouldn’t be nearly so many of them following up on their fresh sales leads right now.
John O’Connor is McKnight’s Editorial Director.
