The fall convention season is fast approaching. That means many of us will soon find ourselves jammed into educational sessions, taking in must-do advice from the smarty-pants crowd.

Learn how to better manage risk, some will advise. Others will claim that linking with hospital systems is an absolute must. Still others will promote alliances with physicians as essential. Then there are those who will simply advise that operators hang in there for a few years, as aging seniors will soon be beating a path to your door.

To be sure, there will be other suggestions in play as well: Do what the big chains are doing, avoid what the big chains are doing, become a specialized-care business, add home care and hospice to your portfolio, rebrand yourself as something that doesn’t sound like nursing care. And on. And on. And on.

My point is not to denigrate any of these experts or what they will be recommending. These are, after all, extremely smart people. Who knows, maybe all their prescriptions will work. And perhaps a few might emerge as absolutely essential.

But the challenge of boldly predicting the future, as any weatherman will tell you, is that there is a very good chance you just might guess wrong. And even an educated guess is still a guess.

I was reminded of the danger of can’t-miss strategies as I read that Cushman & Wakefield is selling off its continuing care retirement community portfolio. These days, that’s not such a big deal. A decade ago, it would have been a real jaw dropper.

For it wasn’t long ago, gentle reader, that CCRCs were hailed as THE surefire strategy for minimizing risk and maximizing profits in this sector. Get lots of entry-fee money up front to cover your construction nut, and then get fat and happy off the monthly rentals. What could possibly go wrong?

Ask Cushman & Wakefied.

To be sure, there are plenty of CCRCs (or to use the term now in use, life plan communities) that are doing quite well, thank you very much. But there are also more than a few that are desperately looking for a workable Plan B right about now.

So the next time you read a breathless convention-coverage story about one operator’s bold new theory, innovation, concept or allegedly better mouse trap, take it in with a huge grain of salt.

Just as every baseball team feels good about its prospects during spring training , so too does just about every new “innovator.” That’s not to suggest new things should not be tried. They absolutely should, and must. But beware the World Series celebration that begins before the first game of the season is actually played.

The history of skilled care is full of can’t-miss approaches that turned out to miss spectacularly. So proceed with caution. And always keep an umbrella handy. Even if the experts insist there’s no rain in the forecast.

John O’Connor is McKnight’s Editorial Director.