John O'Connor

Long-term care operators are understandably giddy about the sudden prospect of immigration reform.

Such a change holds the promise of a larger labor pool at a time of rampant worker shortages. Add in the possibility that a new labor law might also drive down wages and undermine union strength, and it’s not hard to see why many operators are amped up.At press time, lawmakers in both Congressional chambers were getting ready to roll out legislation. Senators have reportedly agreed to a 13-year path to citizenship. Under their proposal, undocumented workers would get a green card after 10 years, and would need another three to gain citizenship. In the House, a three-pronged approach was being considered.

This is all heady stuff. But long-term care operators might want to curb their enthusiasm.

First, keep in mind that the “deal” is being worked out by the White House and members of Congress.

These are the same people who put a sequestration barrier in place to prevent irresponsible behavior. That was before they plowed through the same barrier, Dukes of Hazzard-style.

Second, it’s worth noting that the depth of the industry’s staffing problem extends beyond supply side challenges.

That’s not to say the sector’s labor shortage is not impressive on its own merits. By some estimates, there are now 100,000 unfilled positions in nursing homes. Worse, the number is projected to climb.But the 100,000 figure is even less scary — if that’s possible — than this one: 74.5%.

That’s because 74.5% is the annual turnover rate for certified nursing assistants.

When it comes to staffing, the nursing home sector’s problem is not that the bucket has sprung a leak. In fact, the bucket is pouring out.

Immigration reform is going to be of dubious benefit if it only succeeds in creating millions of people who never want to work in long-term care again.

New hires in this field need more than a job. They need better reasons to stick around.